December: positiv månad och uppgång enligt reviderad prognos för 2020

December: positive month and upturn according to revised forecast for 2020

NAV rate for December was 104.28, an increase on the month of 0.43 (0.41 %) and a standard deviation of 0.92. We are landing the year according to the revised forecast and that is good. Now we look forward to 2021 with new, healthy moves.

 

New lending in December was approximately SEK 15 million.

 

NAV this month is affected by IFRS adjustment before the turn of the year as well as legal costs such as accountants, on the whole it is picking up well. We are a bit like the tortoise and the hare. It goes faster for the hare, however, we also arrive at the same goal, albeit at a more leisurely pace and with significantly less fluctuations than the stock markets (the hare). We contribute to a higher risk-adjusted return if you have the fund as part of your portfolio. Our annual return of just over 4 % is only slightly worse than OMX 30 seen over the whole year.

 

We had a strong set in March and April was weak. Apart from that, the year has been stable. We have unfortunately been in a defensive situation and have not been able to capture the opportunities offered due to the large redemption that the fund handled in 2020. In light of that, I am very satisfied with the result we delivered and not least proud of our dedicated and very competent employees' efforts during the year. The skills the team possesses is unique and it is a pleasure to work with them.

 

We are starting a new fund in 2021 that only invests in market-quoted "High Yield" bonds, it has a unique structure. Available to read about on our website. It will be a good complement to SCF I. Furthermore, the team's competence regarding analysis will be further broadened.

 

We continue our work with extra frequent follow-up of our companies with regard to the Corona situation. The government does everything to keep the wheels turning in as many industries as possible, the fund has no exposure to industries that are directly affected by shutdowns or restrictions. Our companies are not unaffected, it would be wrong to say that, but they are doing well on the whole.

 

This week saw activity data from Asia for December. You can see that they show growth in most places (over 50) even in countries that are heavily affected by the virus. Of the larger countries, China shows strong figures and Japan increases significantly in December compared to November. We must not forget Asia when we look at global growth, and above all Swedish companies.

 

December: positiv månad och uppgång enligt reviderad prognos för 2020 7
Source: Markit

 

We also received activity data from Sweden and it shows good growth in the industry. Furthermore, the activity index from the USA shows strong growth. In summary, the industry is doing well in Sweden and the rest of the world in general, which guarantees a continued robust recovery.

 

2020 has been a challenging year in many ways, not least on the human level. It is certain that many of you are directly or indirectly affected, and we at the fund can only regret that. I hope that 2021 will be a year when we can return to a life without Corona. However, it will take a while before the vaccine has a full effect on society, we simply have to do the best we can in the meantime.

The ultra-easy monetary policy will continue well beyond 2021, it will keep risky assets under arms for the foreseeable future.

A weaker US dollar supports the developing markets, which is also good so that their economies can spin further out of the Corona impact. Bond yields have priced in a lot of growth, now it needs to materialize. However, I want to warn that when signs of inflation begin to appear, long-term interest rates can rise quickly regardless of the central bank purchases, it is not a main scenario in the near term, it could possibly come into play in the second half of 2021.

The Democrats also win the Senate and that will potentially push up long-term interest rates in the US. Trump continues to do his best to hang on power by all available means. It remains a potential stink bomb if he somehow manages to fire President Biden's installation in the White House. What happened around the Capitol shows what an extraordinarily bad leader Trump is. Hope he just becomes a parenthesis in US history.

 

In the environment we've been in in 2020, the S&P has risen by about 16 %, and it's led by technology stocks. Below you can see the sector distribution that contributed to the rise in the S&P. Who could believe this in March when everything fell out of control. There, the central banks have done a good job through their ultra-easy monetary policy, now it is up to the financial policy to continue supporting companies and individuals who are particularly hard hit.

 

December: positiv månad och uppgång enligt reviderad prognos för 2020 8
Source: FT

 

I agree with many who are passionate about fiscal policy supporting investments aimed at reducing CO2 emissions. It will then include everything from mini-nuclear power plants of the fourth generation to water, solar and wind power plants. There are certainly other sources as well, but Sweden needs electricity, a lot of electricity, and there will soon be an electricity shortage if the entire infrastructure around electricity production and its distribution is not addressed.

 

Since 2020, Finserve Nordic, which manages our funds, has a strict sustainability policy. We have an employee who is dedicated to the task of ensuring that our borrowers fit within this framework. We now have a number of questions in our analysis that must be answered by prospective borrowers. We are also members of PRI, which is a global interest organization for fund managers, and we follow its sustainability standards.

 

Below you can see the return on the fund since inception. It has been five turbulent years and we are very grateful for your support and belief in us.

 

December: positiv månad och uppgång enligt reviderad prognos för 2020 9
Source: Bloomberg

 

Below you can see the NAV distribution and main sectors in which the fund is invested:

 

December: positiv månad och uppgång enligt reviderad prognos för 2020 10