Månadsrapport maj 2022 – NFF

Monthly report May 2022 – NFF

NAV rate in May was 102.74, which gives an increase for the month of 0.51 (0.4998%). It is a stable and good month, the fund is moving according to plan.

Inflow for the month of May is SEK 37 million, many thanks for that. We have a good pipeline for factoring so all inflows will be put to work in the foreseeable future.

The market

It feels a bit boring to write about inflation, central bank policy and the war in Ukraine. However, these are the factors that affect the market directly or indirectly now and for a long time to come.

The image below shows aggregated forecasts from around twenty banks that make macro forecasts for Sweden.

What stands out is how quickly they think inflation will fall back and the strengthening of the krona seen in the forecast. The Riksbank will certainly raise the interest rate and the interest rate market's forecast is higher than the economists'. However, such a large strengthening of the krona presupposes rising stock markets or at least that the market calms down and that may happen, but I personally think 2023 at the earliest and then maybe the second half.

We need to see that the rate of increase in price increases slows down, that the war in Ukraine is over or a ceasefire and that the central banks have clearly increased. I maintain that it will be unsettled in the markets well into 2023.


​Source: Bloomberg

Comparison

Below you can see NFF and its return since inception in comparison with a long bond fund. You can sell a long bond fund on the day, but you will hardly get an interesting return if you compare it with NFF since its inception. It looks good to be able to present a curve that has produced a steady and consistent return.


​Source: Bloomberg

IFRS 9

The reserves in this fund are very small, therefore we do not make a special table for this.

Everything is in category 1 and the fund's collateral is over 30,000 invoices pledged in favor of the fund. These are rolled over in 30 to 90 days with credit insurance both with and without recourse. Furthermore, there is property insurance for an eventuality should false invoices appear.

We look brightly at the possibility of growth for factoring in 2022, our partner is getting more and more assignments and that is positive. A bit of a bummer is that competition is increasing and thus pricing is getting tougher, so I think we will land closer to 6% in 2022 than 7% which was the case in 2021.

Below you can see the fund's breakdown by industry and the share in the portfolio of these:

ESG

Finserve Nordic, which is the fund's AIF manager, has in 2020 joined the company to the PRI network, Principles for Responsible investment. The network is independent but supported by the UN and encourages investors to invest responsibly by following the principles developed by the network.

Finserve Nordic believes that the integration of sustainability risks is an important part of the funds' investment processes. Sustainability risks are defined as environmental, social or corporate governance-related circumstances that could have a significant negative impact on the value of investments.

Social aspects include e.g. human rights, labor rights and equal treatment. Environmental aspects are e.g. the companies' impact on the environment and climate. Corporate governance aspects are e.g. anti-corruption, shareholders' rights and business ethics

All funds under Finserve's management follow the responsible investment process formalized in Finserve's Sustainability Risk Integration Policy. The policy is available on the company's website https://finserve.se/viktig-information/. Each fund's sustainability policy is available on the funds' websites

When you do your analysis of the fund, you should primarily look at the credit risk and the liquidity risk in the fund. Are you comfortable with the credit risk that the fund's holdings generate? Furthermore, the assets are illiquid and it can take some time to get your investment back if many people want to withdraw deposited funds at the same time. The fund has a low market risk and has a low correlation with other asset classes.

We emphasize that we are not stressed by non-loaned funds, but continue to work based on our models for credit assessment, all to ensure a good diversification of the portfolio in relation to the credit risk we take. If you need to sell your holdings, do it in the primary market, where you will get the best price. The official NAV rate is published on the first banking day of each month, what is shown during the month on NGM is not, I want to emphasize not always the official NAV rate, as fund units may have been traded in the secondary market at a different rate than the official NAV.