Monthly report January 2022 – NFF

The NAV rate in January was 100.60, which gives an increase for the month of 0.60 (0.60 %). It's a good month.

Inflow of SEK 71 million, many thanks for that.

The market  

Now the market sees what we have flagged in this monthly letter for since 2020, if you pour money all over the world, prices will eventually go up.

The question is whether the inflation is temporary or not?

I think a number of central bank governors are starting to realize that this is not the case.

The Fed will raise interest rates by 75 to 125 bp in 2022, significantly more than the market thought before Christmas. The Bank of England and Norges Bank are also flagging for increases in 2022.

I do not understand that the Riksbank is so sure that the inflation is temporary when the unions start calling for compensation and the farmers suffer from the price of diesel and fertiliser. Added to this, we have the shortage of semiconductors and shipping costs that skyrocket. The market's verdict is clear, the krona has weakened significantly since the end of 2021 and that in itself drives imported inflation. I believe that early interest rate increases mean that the number can be limited and I hope that the Riksbank looks at reality. It is time to flag for increases in 2022.

Below you can see what is priced into the market by various central banks around the world. You can see that the market expects a 50 bp increase in Sweden in 2022, however, the Riksbank has not flagged it yet.

(source: Bloomberg)

Inflation combined with the unrest in Ukraine and Russia's actions mean that risky assets have had a hard time for some time. You can see this in the VIX index, which is a measure of the volatility of US stock markets. It will continue until there is a clearer picture of what the central banks intend to do in the future and a solution in Ukraine has been reached. When the wind is stingy, there is, among other things, an alternative in SCF I or the Nordic Factoring fund to have at the bottom of the portfolio, they act as shock absorbers when equity investments move sharply up and down.

You give up some liquidity and in return you get stability.

​(source: Bloomberg)

Finserve Nordic, which is the fund's AIF manager, has in 2020 joined the company to the PRI network, Principles for Responsible investment. The network is independent but supported by the UN and encourages investors to invest responsibly by following the principles developed by the network.

Finserve Nordic believes that the integration of sustainability risks is an important part of the funds' investment processes. Sustainability risks are defined as environmental, social or corporate governance-related circumstances that could have a significant negative impact on the value of investments.

Social aspects include e.g. human rights, labor rights and equal treatment. Environmental aspects are e.g. the companies' impact on the environment and climate. Corporate governance aspects are e.g. anti-corruption, shareholders' rights and business ethics

All funds under Finserve's management follow the responsible investment process formalized in Finserve's Sustainability Risk Integration Policy. The policy is available on the company's website https://finserve.se/viktig-information/. Each fund's sustainability policy is available on the funds' websites.

When you do your analysis of the fund, you should primarily look at the credit risk and the liquidity risk in the fund. Are you comfortable with the credit risk that the fund's holdings generate? Furthermore, the assets are illiquid and it can take some time to get your investment back if many people want to withdraw deposited funds at the same time. The fund has a low market risk and has a low correlation with other asset classes.

We emphasize that we are not stressed by non-loaned funds, but continue to work based on our models for credit assessment, all to ensure a good diversification of the portfolio in relation to the credit risk we take.

If you need to sell your holdings, do it in the primary market, where you will get the best price.

The official NAV rate is published on the first banking day of each month, what is shown during the month on NGM is not, I want to emphasize not always the official NAV rate, as fund units may have been traded in the secondary market at a different rate than the official NAV.