Månadsbrev oktober 2019

Monthly newsletter October 2019

The Global Security Fund fell by 1.65 percent in October and the return since inception at the end of February is 12.83 percent. The return is predominantly dependent on the krona strengthening against the USD during the month, which we judge to be a short-term strengthening. The Global Security Fund offers good diversification characteristics and we can state that an allocation of 25 % in the fund and 75 % in MSCI World or OMX gave lower risk and higher returns than an investment only in MSCI World or OMX.

It was a strong month for the fund's cybersecurity holdings. FireEye and Palo Alto Networks both posted strong gains, rising 15.64 percent and 11.36 percent, respectively. FireEye beat profit expectations in the third quarter, but it is not only an increased profit that positively affected the price development. Rumors abound that FireEye is an interesting takeover candidate for larger players. Larger companies that want to broaden their portfolio with interesting products and services that can become more profitable with wider distribution. It is a clear trend we have seen in the market recently, which historically has also benefited the Global Security Fund. FireEye is technologically very far ahead and has revenues of around 1 billion dollars per year. In the report for quarter 3, it was found that the company today has approx. 8,500 customers in 103 countries. Of the quarter's new customers, approximately one-third purchased additional products and services from the company. Global Security Fund has increased its holdings in FireEye by 2 percentage points.

In addition to FireEye and Palo Alto Networks, Raytheon, Airbus and Saab (returns in USD) performed very well in October, rising 9.24 percent, 9.04 percent and 8.26 percent, respectively. Raytheon released a stronger-than-expected quarterly report, with revenue up 2.37 percent and earnings per share up 7.69 percent. Saab reported significantly higher revenue and profit per share than expected, 7,914 billion SEK compared to 6,719 billion SEK expected and 2.01 billion SEK respectively 1,283 billion SEK expected.

Northrop Grumman beat market expectations for the fifth quarter in a row and delivered very strong earnings per share in the third quarter. Despite that, Northrop Grumman developed negatively during October with -5.79 %. We believe Northrop Grumman is in a very strong position to take advantage of rising defense and space spending, and see the October decline as a consolidation after a strong period. Northrop Grumman is one of the Global Security Fund's largest holdings. Thales, Boeing, Viasat and Science Applications International were the companies in the fund that had the worst performance during the month. Boeing had higher-than-expected revenue during the quarter, but earnings per share were worse than expected. In addition to the ongoing 737 Max issues, the company has also had some challenges with deliveries on the defense side. We remain positive on Boeing.  There is enormous pressure on the company  to resolve ongoing issues and it is clear that this is a top priority for both the company and the US government.