Månadsbrev april 2020

Monthly newsletter April 2020

Massive Central Bank interventions around the world helped to calm the market panic we saw in March, which led to increased investment appetite and stock prices that took off for pretty much every company. The Global Security fund had its best month so far and returned 12.6 percent, significantly better than the Swedish stock market, which was up 6.4 percent. It was not unexpected that the market rebounded from the sharp decline in March, but the intensity of the rally is remarkable. Looking at the market in general, we see a huge difference in returns on technology stocks compared to cyclical stocks – Netflix is up just under 30 percent this year and trades at a PE number of 86 which confirms investors' belief that the strong growth will continue.

There is no doubt that the world will change. An example is the possible transition to a more flexible workplace where working remotely will become more common. Clear winners in this development are Microsoft, Amazon and Google through their cloud solution services. Microsoft, which won the US JEDI contract, is one of the fund's holdings and is up more than 10 percent this year. We believe the trend towards the digital workplace will increase the growth rate of security solution demand which will lead to good business opportunities for the technology companies in this area, but it is important to find the right company to invest in. Such a company that has so far benefited from this acceleration in demand on security solutions is Crowdstrike which is up over 45 percent this year. The cybersecurity solutions company is based in California, but has a global presence and has been involved in a number of high-profile breaches that include the Democratic National Committee email leak and cyberattacks. The company is one of the five largest holdings in the fund with an allocation of 7.1 percent. The company's price is up a whopping 145 percent since the fund bought in in March and was up over 24 percent in April, once again among the top yielding holdings. Other companies that performed particularly well in April were technology and software solutions providers CACI, Mantech International and Science Applications International, up 20.8, 18.9 and 16.6 percent.

It has been a nightmare year for US aerospace giant Boeing, which was the only holding in the fund whose price was down in April. It started with Boeing losing credibility in handling the 737 MAX failures to a complete evaporation of market demand for new planes. It is clear that this market environment will take years to repair. Too long according to Warren Buffett who has decided to sell off his airline investments. Massive government bailouts for the airline industry will eventually lead to recovery in an important industry. According to the company's quarterly report, COVID-19 will lead to an increased demand for small to medium-sized aircraft and even if the demand for aircraft will be depressed for a while, the situation is not completely dark. As a testament to investors' faith in Boeing, the company had no problem filling its latest $25 billion bond issue, without government help. The fund's holding in Boeing is about 1 percent.

You can download the report here