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In March 2026, Finserve Nordic and Spring Capital brought together experts in defense, space and the financial markets to discuss how geopolitics is reshaping the investment landscape. Read our key insights from the seminar – and watch the full recording.
In March 2026, Finserve Nordic and Spring Capital invited a selection of investors, analysts and defense experts to a joint seminar on how the changing security policy climate affects capital allocation and technological innovation.
The recording is now available in its entirety – see the video below.
Click on the image to watch the entire seminar on YouTube.
From globalization to geopolitics – the background
Gustav Hagerud, CEO of Finserve Nordic, opened the seminar with a historical overview. In the decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the world economy was characterized by hyperglobalization, stable interest rates and low inflation – a period that benefited broad portfolios enormously. The financial crisis of 2008 marked a break in the trend: discontent, populism and increased geopolitical tension gradually began to change the playing field.
The annexation of Crimea in 2014 went relatively unnoticed by financial markets. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was the start of a new era. Democratic states, which have long underinvested in defense, are now in a phase of heavy rearmament. Combined with trade barriers, tariffs and questions about the independence of central banks, geopolitics has become a key variable for investors.
Lessons from Ukraine – and what the war shows about the defense of the future
Stefan Gustafsson, former Chief of the Defence Staff and board professional with a background from, among other things, Swedish Base Corporation and the space industry, presented a number of crucial insights from the conflict in Ukraine:
- Inventory and lead times were critical weaknesses. The West had insufficient stocks of ammunition and excessively long production lead times.
- The pace of innovation has accelerated significantly. Civilian technology companies have contributed solutions – not least in drone technology – at a pace that traditional defense industries cannot match.
- Data and AI are crucial. Satellite communications, reconnaissance, and AI-powered analysis have become as important as conventional firepower.
- The boundary between civilian and military technology is blurring. Drones, satellites and cloud services originally developed for civilian markets are now being used operationally in conflicts.
The maritime renaissance
Gustafsson highlighted what he calls ”the maritime renaissance” – a strategic shift in which navies’ missions are shifting from meeting direct military attacks to protecting global merchant shipping. The Arctic and the GIUK gap (Greenland–Iceland–UK) have once again become strategically critical areas. Larger, more resilient ships and a greatly increased use of unmanned vehicles – both above and below the water surface – are expected to shape the coming decades.
Space as strategic infrastructure
A central thesis throughout the seminar was that no nation can win a modern war – or maintain competitiveness – without a strong space infrastructure.
What Stefan Gustafsson describes as data-driven connected defense (or "multi-domain operations" in NATO terminology) is based on three pillars:
- Sensors – massive collection of data via satellites and sensor networks
- Connectivity – secure and fast transfer of information
- Cloud-based processing – real-time analysis and distribution to the right unit
A crucial technological difference exists between LEO satellites (Low Earth Orbit, ~600 km) and geostationary satellites (~36,000 km). Geostationary satellites enable silent, continuous connections – units on the ground can receive processed information without transmitting a single signal, eliminating the risk of revealing their position. Sweden is one of the leading countries in this technology, including through the listed company Ovzon.
Swedish space companies at the forefront
Gustafsson highlighted a number of Swedish companies that are at the forefront of technology: Unibap (edge computing in space), GomSpace (microsatellites), e.Cabs (propulsion systems) and SSC Space with the Esrange space base in Kiruna – whose launch capacity was recently procured by the Swedish Armed Forces.
The investment perspective – where is the growth?
Joakim Agerback, portfolio manager for Finserve Global Security Fund (9.2 billion SEK under management, Europe's oldest defense fund), identified a number of structural drivers:
Three sectors in focus
The fund invests in defense, cybersecurity and space – which also constitute three of the five defense domains now included in NATO's 5% goal (3.5% conventional defense + infrastructure, cyber and space).
Asymmetric warfare requires new responses
Cheap drone attacks against expensive air defense capabilities create a cost advantage for the attacker of 1:20 or more. The solution is laser systems and other low-cost interceptors – a segment with strong growth. The company Kratos was highlighted as an example of a player with broad capabilities in drone systems and command support.
Autonomous systems and faster decision loops
The next step beyond remotely piloted drones is coordinated, autonomous systems that integrate command, analysis and action. Palantir is mentioned as a key company in intelligence and decision support – its Maven software already controls parts of NATO and US defense operations.
Portfolio characteristics
The fund contains approximately 60 companies with an emphasis on small and mid-cap stocks. The beta value against the broad stock market is remarkably low – typically 0.3–0.55 – which provides clear diversification value in a portfolio context.
The Technology Fund Perspective – AI and Semiconductors
Inge Heidorn, who manages Finserve Chelverton Global Tech, among others, described how civilian technology development and defense applications are increasingly mirror images of each other. Microsoft's Azure platform is the backbone of NATO's digital warfare; Nvidia chips are found in the weapons systems being analyzed on the battlefield.
Heidorn emphasized the investment philosophy of identifying long-term trends – preferably 10–15 years ahead – and then analyze which companies have the strongest position. The cloud sector, which the fund bought into as early as 2007–2008, is a prime example. TSMC was highlighted as one of the world's most important companies with extremely high barriers to entry and likely undervalued estimates.
The software sector and cybersecurity, however, have been weighted down – a position that was taken a year ago and proved correct given the turbulence the market experienced towards the end of 2025.
The macro perspective – geopolitics and portfolio construction
Patrik Nyman, former head of interest rates, currencies and equities at one of the Swedish AP funds for 33 years, highlighted the energy market as the black swan of 2026. The unrest in the Middle East has pushed the oil price towards $100 per barrel – a level that implies a significantly higher inflation risk than the consensus forecasts at the beginning of the year.
He pointed to several structural megatrends that are expected to shape the investment landscape for a long time:
- AI and technological sovereignty
- A multipolar world order with requirements for reshoring and near-shoring
- Secure access to critical metals and energy
- Massive investments in real assets and infrastructure
For institutional investors, the challenge is to shift from broad index-based mandates to more thematic exposure to these megatrends. The recommendation was to seek external expertise and specialized funds rather than trying to build expertise internally in the short term.
Summary – key conclusions
| Theme | Conclusion |
|---|---|
| Geopolitical driving force | The US-China superpower rivalry is expected to last for 20–30 years |
| Defense investment | Structural, long investment cycle – not a short-term business cycle |
| Space | Critical infrastructure for both military capability and economic competitiveness |
| Technology convergence | Civil and military technology are increasingly the same technology |
| Valuation | The sector is trading at a premium valuation with good justification |
| Macro risk | Energy prices are the primary downside for 2026 |
About the speakers
Gustav Hagerud – CEO Finserve Nordic | Stefan Gustafsson – former Defence Staff, board member and space industry expert | Joakim Agerback – portfolio manager Finserve Global Security Fund | Inge Heidorn – portfolio manager Finserve Chelverton Global Tech Fund | Patrick Nyman – former Head of Asset Management, AP Funds