NAV rate in August was 104.10, which gives an increase for the month of 0.54. An excellent month that is above the rolling twelve month target of at least 6%.
Inflow of SEK 22 million, many thanks for that.
New lending in September was around SEK 30m. The fund is fully invested and everything you deposit now will be put to work right away for the rest of the year.
The market: I think the single most important event in the near future is the election in the USA. I wrote in last month's newsletter that I think Trump will win and I still think so (although I hope for Biden), although I personally find it an unpleasant thought. As previously mentioned, I am most worried that Trump will not hand over power in the event of a Biden victory. It will probably lead to unrest, which in turn will put a damper on risk appetite. In this graph you see the market's prediction of the election outcome, you can see that there is quite a large overweight for Biden. You can also see that 6 months ago it was the next zero. A lot can happen before election day.
Once the election is over, I think risky assets will continue to develop well regardless of whether Trump or Biden wins, but more so with Trump as he will probably come with an expansive tax package that will be received positively by the market.
As before this year, Covid-19 is what works in the other direction. A sharp increase is underway in Europe, however, it seems that politicians are trying to keep the wheels turning as long as possible. It would be a disaster with shutdowns of the type that happened last spring.
Vaccine, it is the holy grail that we all long for, it would change the picture completely. I think the market expects an effective vaccine to be in place before the turn of the year or during Q1 2021. It is unfortunately the reverse if it is much delayed.
Risky assets have had a bit of a tough time in September with high volatility. However, October has started in a big way and the Stockholm Stock Exchange has set a new "all time high".
Below you can see the fund's return since inception. It's a very nice curve and high risk-adjusted return since inception.
Below you can see the type of companies we finance invoice purchases from:
(the fund uses its ability to leverage, hence the positive and negative allocation figures)
We emphasize that we are not stressed by non-loaned funds, but continue to work based on our models for credit assessment, all to ensure a good diversification of the portfolio in relation to the credit risk we take.
If you need to sell your holdings, do it in the primary market, where you will get the best price. The official NAV rate is published on the first banking day of each month, what is shown during the month on NGM is not, I want to emphasize not always the official NAV rate, as fund shares may have been traded in the secondary market at a lower rate than the official NAV.