Månadsrapport maj 2022 – NFF

Monthly report May 2022 – NFF

NAV rate in May was 102.74, which gives an increase for the month of 0.51 (0.4998%). It is a stable and good month, the fund is moving according to plan.

Inflow for the month of May is SEK 37 million, many thanks for that. We have a good pipeline for factoring so all inflows will be put to work in the foreseeable future.

The market

It feels a bit boring to write about inflation, central bank policy and the war in Ukraine. However, these are the factors that affect the market directly or indirectly now and for a long time to come.

The image below shows aggregated forecasts from around twenty banks that make macro forecasts for Sweden.

What stands out is how quickly they think inflation will fall back and the strengthening of the krona seen in the forecast. The Riksbank will certainly raise the interest rate and the interest rate market's forecast is higher than the economists'. However, such a large strengthening of the krona presupposes rising stock markets or at least that the market calms down and that may happen, but I personally think 2023 at the earliest and then maybe the second half.

We need to see that the rate of increase in price increases slows down, that the war in Ukraine is over or a ceasefire and that the central banks have clearly increased. I maintain that it will be unsettled in the markets well into 2023.


​Source: Bloomberg

Comparison

Below you can see NFF and its return since inception in comparison with a long bond fund. You can sell a long bond fund on the day, but you will hardly get an interesting return if you compare it with NFF since its inception. It looks good to be able to present a curve that has produced a steady and consistent return.