Månadsrapport juli 2021 – NFF

Monthly report July 2021 – NFF

NAV rate in July was 103.98, which gives an increase for the month of 0.60 (0.5804%). It's a good month, the fund is progressing according to plan.

Inflow of SEK 29 million, many thanks for that. New lending in February was around SEK 20m.

We introduce quarterly liquidity in the fund for redemption on 2021-07-01, we maintain the possibility of monthly investments. Redemption must be notified at least 90 days before redemption.

We continue our work with extra frequent follow-up of our companies with regard to the Corona situation.

The market

Are low interest rates only good for risky assets or are we building up a potential bang ahead? Are artificially low long-term interest rates only good or is it time to let off the gas pedal and reduce asset purchases by central banks before it is too late. What happens if a new crisis arises, what tools are left to use?

The rapidly falling long-term interest rates that we have seen in the last month are normally interpreted as positive for risky assets, it can be seen as a sign that the central banks have inflation under control. It can also be seen that expected growth will fall, a new wave of shutdowns or restrictions due to the Delta variant puts a damper on the recovery in the West and in developing countries. Furthermore, it can be seen as an alternative to the purchase of risky assets.

Regardless, we have a very favorable situation right now for risky assets. Some analysts see no end to this and they may be right. (Ps I don't think so Ds) Many of them have probably not sat through all the crises of the 80s, 90s and 2000s. It always ends, - the question is what will be the trigger? The best thing is a soft braking, of course, but that rarely happens.

We will get to a point when stock market valuations are so high that an additional purchase seems like a pyramid scheme and who are we to buy junk bonds at a yield below 5% forever? When all these long positions are to be liquidated, it can get crowded.

I think the trigger will be the FED realizing they have been doing too easy monetary policy for too long and starting tightening, initially reducing asset purchases, followed by repo rate hikes that exceed market expectations. It becomes extremely important more than before to read between the lines of the messages from the important central banks around the world for an indication of changes in monetary policy.

(We received inflation statistics in the US during the month that far exceeded the FED's own and the market's expectations.)

In the graph below, you can see a number of inflation indicators in the US that all indicate rising inflation and that the statistics are above or well above an average for the last 10 years.

Inflation indicators july 2021

Inflation indicators July 2021

I wonder if the experts don't see the forest for the trees?

Finserve Nordic, which is the fund's AIF manager, has in 2020 joined the company to the PRI network, Principles for Responsible investment. The network is independent but supported by the UN and encourages investors to invest responsibly by following the principles developed by the network.

Finserve Nordic believes that the integration of sustainability risks is an important part of the funds' investment processes. Sustainability risks are defined as environmental, social or corporate governance-related circumstances that could have a significant negative impact on the value of investments.
Social aspects include e.g. human rights, labor rights and equal treatment. Environmental aspects are e.g. the companies' impact on the environment and climate. Corporate governance aspects are e.g. anti-corruption, shareholders' rights and business ethics

All funds under Finserve's management follow the responsible investment process formalized in Finserve's Sustainability Risk Integration Policy. The policy is available on the company's website https://finserve.se/viktig-information/. Each fund's sustainability policy is available on the funds' websites.

We can announce that based on today's sustainability requirements for funds, the Nordic Factoring Fund is to be considered a "light green" fund, which is very good. In Sweden, about 30% of all funds have a rating corresponding to light green or better.

How the fund is invested

NFF Portfolio Juli 2021

NFF Portfolio July 2021

The fund's AUM is less than the granted limits of approx. SEK 1.5 billion. This compilation does not come straight out of the system without a lot of manual work so it will not be included every month. It will be interspersed with the usual compilation.
(the fund uses its ability to leverage, hence the positive and negative allocation numbers).

When you do your analysis of the fund, you should primarily look at the credit risk and the liquidity risk in the fund. Are you comfortable with the credit risk that the fund's holdings generate? Furthermore, the assets are illiquid and it can take some time to get your investment back if many people want to withdraw deposited funds at the same time. The fund has a low market risk and has a low correlation with other asset classes.
We emphasize that we are not stressed by non-loaned funds, but continue to work based on our models for credit assessment, all to ensure a good diversification of the portfolio in relation to the credit risk we take.
If you need to sell your holdings, do it in the primary market, where you will get the best price.
At present, when the fund has delayed redemption and if you are in a hurry to sell, the secondary market may be an alternative. The official NAV rate is published on the first banking day of each month, what is shown during the month on NGM is not, I want to emphasize not always the official NAV rate, as fund units may have been traded in the secondary market at a different rate than the official NAV.