Månadsrapport februari 2022 – Exelity

Monthly report February 2022 - Exelity

The net return for Exelity during the month of February amounted to -3.0 %, which can be compared with -7 % for the OMX index. Performing relatively better than the index during the biggest downturn phases is in accordance with our strategy and important to reach our goal of at least 10 % net returns per year. However, we would like to remind you that we have no ambition to hedge out declines completely, but the February result gives us a stable basis for future returns when the stock market turns.

The negative return in the portfolio is entirely explained by our largest holding Smart Eye, whose stock retreated by -6 % during the month. The decline occurred despite Smart Eye winning a contract worth at least SEK 550 million related to a new car manufacturer that is one of the world's largest with a market share that we estimate to be around 10 % of the total world market. The contract does not apply to the upcoming deal we identified that we wrote about in our last monthly newsletter. In summary, the negative monthly return does not reflect the development in Smart Eye, or any of our other positions for that matter. The Q4 reports in our holdings have been strong.

However, the environment on the stock market has been challenging. For example, the First North index, which peaked a year ago, is now down to its lowest levels since the summer of 2020. It shows that growth companies and small companies, where we have our main hunting grounds, were already in a crash before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. We have no exposure to Russia, Ukraine or the like. On the other hand, we own Invisio, which supplies hearing protection to the defense industry, which (unfortunately) will see increased demand in the long term, with the new European security order emerging.

We see certain tendencies that the war will lead to a sector rotation from cyclically sensitive engineering companies to the structurally growing technology companies that form the backbone of our stock portfolio. However, our strategy is not based on macroeconomic guesses but on thorough bottom-up analysis where we can quickly exploit the best business opportunities that arise in the turbulence, regardless of whether they are in loans, listed or unlisted companies, etc. In the monthly newsletter for January we stated that we were working on getting into a higher proportion of financial transactions, which we also did. The share of bridging loans and guarantees now amounts to 27 %, compared to 15 % in January. Halfway through the month, however, we began to shift focus back from loans to equities, as sentiment for listed equities began to become increasingly excessively pessimistic.

Right now we are seeing fewer and fewer targeted issues and acquisitions. However, companies' capital needs do not disappear, but only take on new forms. Guarantee issuance conditions are gradually improving, in line with what we saw in January, and we see this may continue. Exelity thrives in such an environment. Liquidity is usually in short supply in this type of market, but not for Exelity. We have a cash register of 19 % and further inflows on the way.