Månadsbrev november 2019

Monthly newsletter November 2019

The Global Security Fund was up 1.15 percent in November. Since its inception at the end of February, the fund has recorded an increase of 14.13 percent with an annual standard deviation of 9.48 percent. In comparison, the Stockholm Stock Exchange has returned 13.2 percent during the same period but with a standard deviation of 19.75 percent – roughly twice as high a risk as the Global Security Fund. The krone strengthened during the month by 1.28 percent, which negatively affected the result. The rise in the krona is driven by expectations of an interest rate increase in Sweden. In the long term, however, our assessment is that the krona will weaken against the USD, which benefits the fund.

Huntington Ingalls released a strong report for the month, showing a better-than-expected operating margin. Even with cautious and conservative calculations, the company should achieve good profits and free cash flow for the year, and we believe the outlook for next year is positive as we believe these trends will continue. The rate, measured in dollars, was up over 11.8 percent. Other traditional defense companies that performed well during the month were Lockheed Martin, United Technologies and General Dynamics which were up 3.32, 3.13 and 1.96 percent, measured in dollars. It was again a good month for Saab, which was up by another 4.38 percent after the company rose by 6.83 percent the month before. The Global Security Fund increased its holding in Saab during the month and the company is now the fund's third largest holding. We believe that Saab has great potential if the company can capitalize on an improved operating margin and higher sales.

November was a strong month for the software industry and companies in the security sector. Cyber security company FireEye performed strongly in October, continuing up 8.9 percent in dollar terms in November. CACI, which provides security industry products and services for both government and commercial markets was up 6.57 percent in dollar terms, while Mantech, which also provides security industry services to critical US national defense programs, was up 9.97 percent in dollar terms. Both CACI and Mantech have had strong growth in their sales with operating margins of approximately 5 percent.

Boeing's share price, measured in dollar terms, was up 5.81 percent in November despite the challenges of delivery delays. We are still positive about the company, but follow the development carefully.

It was a bad month for Dell, which was down 9.79 percent, measured in dollars. As we have previously mentioned, the company is vulnerable to the ongoing trade war between China and the United States. Hewlett Packard Enterprise also had a worse development during the month as the company's sales were worse than the corresponding period the year before. Global Security Fund bought into a new company, Italian Leonardo. The company has had strong profits, better than the market's expectations, but the development during November was somewhat worse and the price retreated 2.99 percent after the fund had bought into the company. Other companies that performed less well during November were L3Harris Technologies and Flir, which were down 3.24 and 2.64 percent respectively, measured in dollars.

The investment case for the defense and security sectors is strong and we see continued pressure that NATO member countries will increase their defense budgets, which in turn will benefit companies in these sectors. We do not see a sustainable solution to the ongoing debate between China and the US and believe that, on the contrary, there is an immediate risk of increasing geopolitical risks as a result, for example US support for Hong Kong.