Månadsbrev augusti 2019

Monthly newsletter August 2019

August was another good month for the Global Security Fund with a return of 3.2 percent – an excellent result when the fund's benchmark index was up 0.4 percent and the Swedish stock exchange's return was minus 1.4 percent. Since its inception, the fund has outperformed its benchmark and beaten the Swedish stock market by more than 10 percentage points. During the period from May to August, which was marked by some market turbulence, the fund returned close to 7 percent. That compares with a return of -5.1 percent for the OMX TR and shows the value of diversifying into global equities, especially global securities, when times are tougher.

The cyber security company Carbon Black was once again the best performing company in the Global Security Fund during the month with a return of almost 40 percent. Since we invested in the company in April, it has returned close to 100 percent. The development has been fueled by takeover rumors and escalated when VMware announced a bid for the company, a deal that will close in 2020.

We expect to see more of these types of deals in the cybersecurity industry. Instead of relying on organic growth, these niche players can achieve larger networks and scalability by being acquired by larger companies. In this case, VMware's network includes 75,000 partners and 500,000 customers, which combined with access to the Dell EMC ecosystem, including RSA and SecureWorks, gives Carbon Black an opportunity to extend its platform in ways not available before. Not entirely unexpectedly, Patrick Morley, Carbon Black's CEO, will lead a security unit that VMware is creating. We are positive about the offer and divest our holding in Carbon Black.

The portfolio's defense companies performed strongly in August. Booz Allen, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Leidos, Lockheed Martin and Kongsberg Gruppen increased significantly. Booz Allen, which has carved out a niche as a consulting services provider, has attractive margins and high upside linked to capitalizing on increased federal demand for next-generation technology capabilities in cloud, cybersecurity, analytics, software development and artificial intelligence. Kongsberg Gruppen delivered top-line growth with higher profits and achieved strong order intake for the second quarter, which helped the share price rise over 6 percent during the month.

We believe that Boeing's craze on the stock market has reached its final phase, especially if you look at the company as more than a manufacturer of the 'Max 737'. The company is largely also a defense company with stable revenues and an interesting product portfolio. The Global Security Fund has now increased its allocation in Boeing to approximately 4.5 percent. After the decision, the company is up just over 10 percent, and 6 percent during August.

The five worst performing companies in August were Dell, Palo Alto Networks, Fireeye, Saab and Textron. The news that Håkan Buskhe is leaving as CEO of SAAB has put pressure on the price in the short term, but our assessment is that the company has very good conditions to succeed in gaining sales for its modern products in most parts of the world. The Swedish government's decision to significantly increase the budget for defense until 2025 is completely in line with the rest of the world. The increased geopolitical unrest in the world benefits SAAB and other global security companies.

See the monthly report of the Global Security Fund below:

Monthly report_201908_SEK