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Healthy Correction Amid a Strong Earnings Season in the Defense Sector
Defense stocks declined slightly in early October following reports that Trump and Putin were planning to meet in Budapest to discuss a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. The market interpreted this as a sign of easing tensions, but the meeting was later canceled, and the sector recovered toward the end of the month. The fund fell by 1.62% for the month. The market is now characterized by higher volatility and a correction, which is in many ways healthy after strong gains in both the defense and tech sectors. The management team emphasizes the importance of diversification across regions, companies, and segments in the current phase of the market. It is now crucial that companies deliver—securing orders and expanding production capacity. The earnings season has been strong overall. Several leading defense companies reported results in line or above expectations. Order flows, margins, and profitability all developed positively, confirming that the structural growth in the defense and security sector remains intact.
Regional focus – Asia
Taiwan announced plans for a new multi-layered air defense system, “T-Dome,” designed to counter growing threats from China. The system will integrate sensors and effectors into a rapid “sensor-to-shooter” network that enables faster detection and response against incoming threats. President Lai Ching-te also stated that Taiwan’s defense budget will increase to 5% of GDP by 2030, underscoring how drone and missile threats are now driving regional defense investments across Asia.
Regional focus – Ukraine
Russia finds itself in a strategic stalemate in its war against Ukraine—facing high costs, limited progress, and increasing dependence on drones and long-range weapons. Ukraine, meanwhile, lacks financing for future arms purchases and remains heavily reliant on continued support from Europe and the U.S.
In late October, Moscow tested the nuclear-powered Poseidon torpedo drone—a weapon designed to create radioactive tsunamis against coastal cities. The test was primarily seen as a show of force, but it signals that the Kremlin is willing to use nuclear rhetoric to increase pressure on the West. In response, President Trump hinted that the U.S. could resume its own nuclear testing, further escalating geopolitical tensions.
| October 2025 – Highest Performance | October 2025 – Lowest Performance | ||
| AST SPACEMOBILE | 63% | AVIO | -30% |
| KAWASAKI HEAVY IND. | 27% | MILDEF | -22% |
| INDRA SYSTEMS | 26% | EXAIL TECHNOLOGIES | -18% |
| CLOUDFLARE | 18% | KONGSBERG GROUP | -18% |
| OKI ELECTRIC | 14% | SOLD | -16% |
Company-specific news
During October, several of our holdings released their quarterly reports. Most results were positive and well received by the market. Below we briefly comment on two of our key Scandinavian holdings: Saab & Kongsberg Gruppen. More detailed analyses of the Q3 reports will be published on our LinkedIn page.
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Kongsberg reported a strong third quarter with revenue of NOK 13.3 billion (+12%) and EBIT of NOK 2.0 billion, corresponding to a margin of 15.2%. The order backlog rose to NOK 142 billion, driven by continued strong demand for air defense systems, anti-ship missiles, and integrated defense solutions. The company also announced the spin-off of Kongsberg Maritime, which will be listed separately in spring 2026, while Defence & Aerospace, Digital and Discovery will merge into a focused defense and technology group. Although the market initially reacted negatively, the fund sees this as an opportunity to increase its position for long-term exposure.
Saab delivered a solid Q3 report with 17% sales growth to SEK 15.9 billion and an EBIT margin of 8.7%, slightly above expectations. Despite a somewhat weaker order intake of SEK 21 billion, the company raised its full-year growth guidance to 20–24% and reported an order backlog of SEK 202 billion. Shortly after the report, Sweden and Ukraine signed a letter of intent for 100–150 Gripen E aircraft—a potential deal worth around SEK 1 billion per plane, which could significantly boost Saab’s future sales. The shifting order patterns strengthen Saab’s position in the Surveillance and Aeronautics markets, reducing its reliance on growth within the Dynamics segment.