Monthly report March 2021 – SCF I

The NAV rate for March was 101.62, an increase on the month of 0.54 (0.53 %) and a standard deviation of 0.90. A robust month that we are happy with.

We have inflows of around SEK 39 million, thank you for that.

New lending in March was approximately SEK 60 million. We have a lot of amortizations totaling SEK 450 million during March. It shows that the business model with both deposits and lending works well. The liquidity at the time of writing is approximately SEK 200 million and I expect to put more in the works later in April. We made a couple of larger loans at the beginning of April. We continue our work with extra frequent follow-up of our companies with regard to the Corona situation.

The market
Last week the ISM service index came out in the US and it was super strong. The activity in the USA is on its way back with notice. With a stimulus package of USD 4.1 trillion, fiscal policy pumps out a rarely seen stimulus in the US economy and it shows in the statistics. It is a mixture of direct grants and infrastructure investments that are carried out. This, together with a lack of consumption by the citizens of the USA in the past year and ultra-easy monetary policy, this guarantees a strong recovery especially in the second half of 2021. We can also look forward to this as it will spill over into global growth.

This is priced into the stock prices in the US. What may not be priced in but which is a risk on the downside is higher corporate taxes, higher interest rates as a result of the inflation that will bite and not be a temporary increase as the FED thinks and that interest rates rise as a result of this. We will see what the effects of this will be on risky assets, however, we can state that we are living in an interesting phase of the global economy where everything possible can and does happen.

Covid-19 and vaccination
In the graph below, you can clearly see what happens to new cases of the infected when a country has more than 50 percent of the population vaccinated. The curve in Israel is very clear where they are down to almost no new cases. It is also very clear in the UK that the high vaccination rate is clearly visible in new cases of Covid-19, so the faster the vaccine is rolled out, the faster we can go back to the "new normal". What do I want to say with these graphs? Well, vaccination is so important to be able to get back to an open society where we don't have to be restricted and be looked at askance if we happen to get too close to someone at ICA. When I see these graphs I become optimistic, let's hope that we in Sweden can also reach this vaccination rate before the summer.