Månadskommentar maj 2022

Monthly comment May 2022

The conflict in Ukraine continues to have a negative impact on the real economy and also threatens food supplies in the Third World which can lead to catastrophic consequences and which can thus lead to an intensified and more extensive conflict where Western countries feel they need to act. The conflict in Ukraine may be protracted and we are probably facing a new geopolitical situation in Europe also in the long term. It is clear that Western European countries will strongly increase their defense budgets and this will affect the defense industry and companies operating in the sector. The average increase in defense appropriations in European countries is 75 %.

We also follow developments around Taiwan and increased tensions between the US and China, where the degree of impact is considerably more extensive than what the conflict with Russia can lead to.

The geopolitical situation with increased tensions between the West, Russia and China also means that hybrid warfare is likely to increase with lower thresholds for industrial espionage, influence, disinformation and sabotage of various kinds. As a result, large investments will be made in cyber security both by commercial companies and states. When a company of Microsoft's stature goes out and speaks about the importance of being exposed to the growth in the cyber security sector, it is understood that the growth will be significant and global.

We work actively to ensure that the fund gets exposure to the growth conditions stated above. The fund has started a reallocation that has a clearer weight towards defense companies and reduced towards IT companies as a result. As previously stated, the fund wants to have clear exposure to growth in cyber security.

From a macro perspective, inflation is the big cloud of worry with increased interest rates as a result. Inflation in the US was 8.6 % per the latest inflation report, which is the highest figure in 40 years. The fund has greater exposure to value companies than growth and promising companies, which can be important when inflation is rampant.

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