EN 
SE 
March has been a challenging month for global stock markets, with geopolitical unrest in the Middle East dominating the mood. Despite this, the Exelity the month of -3,7 %, which means that the fund so far this year is -1,7 %.
This is a clear excess return compared to broad indices. During the same period, large-cap indices fell by -8,4 % in March (and -2,2 % for the full year 2026), while the Carnegie Small Cap Return Index was listed down -5,6 % in March (and -7,7 % year to date). We are pleased that our strategy continues to weather the stock market turbulence well and deliver relative strength even in a volatile market.
Exelity has a deliberately concentrated portfolio where we actively pursue alpha among Nordic small and micro companies. Our largest holding constitutes approximately 6 % of the fund, and we continue to strongly believe that this approach – combined with careful company analysis and selective transactions – is the right way forward.
Since I took over management in the fall of 2023, the fund has been up +65 % with a CAGR of approximately 23% %. During the same period, Exelity has significantly outperformed both large and small cap indices, as well as comparable Swedish small and micro cap funds. Overall since 2023, Exelity is up +83 %, while the Carnegie Small Cap Return Index and Carnegie Micro Cap Return Index have only risen by +2 % and +3 % respectively. It is a result we are proud of, but we know that the market always offers new challenges – and we continue to work purposefully to create good risk-adjusted returns over time.
Development and activity of the month
The transaction leg remained calm during March, while the equity portfolio accounted for the relative excess return. During the month, Exelity participated as an anchor investor in the Bergholm IPO, conducted a directed issue in Terranor and slightly increased equity exposure.
We are closely monitoring geopolitical developments. The betting market is currently pricing a 56/% probability that Trump will be able to end the conflict in Iran before the end of April, and a 71/% probability that Hormuz will return to normal traffic before the end of May. These factors could have a major impact on market sentiment going forward.
BTS Group – a strong case for 2026
A holding we continue to have high confidence in is BTS Group, where we have increased our positioning during the period. We see several concrete triggers in 2026:
- The company is expected to guide up during the year, where cost savings alone are estimated to lift EBITA by approximately 10 % year over year.
- We see clear indications that North America has bottomed out and that a turnaround could begin as early as the first quarter, with good visibility.
- Given today's attractive valuation, we believe a buyback program is likely.
- The company is trading at around 8x EV/EBITA and 15x P/E – an excessive discount compared to historical averages of around 21x EV/EBITA.
- The partnership with Anthropic on the rollout of Cloud solutions to large enterprises is expected to contribute positively to high-margin licensing revenues.
Founder and major owner Henrik Ekelund has strengthened his ownership by approximately SEK 47 million during the spring, which we see as a strong signal of confidence. BTS Group had a strong month of March and closed +8,3 %.
In summary, we are optimistic for the rest of 2026. Our portfolio is well positioned to benefit from any stabilization in the small cap segment, while continuing to work in a disciplined manner with both the equity and transaction legs.
Thank you for your continued trust. It is a privilege to manage your capital, and we look forward to continuing to deliver good results together.