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September saw a continuation of positive datapoints for our portfolio companies, with both reported results and broader newsflow pointing to strong demand, still well above supply. Monthly supply chain figures (for August, but reported in September) were strong. TSMC (owned) reported revenue up 53% compared to the year before, after July was up 45% – significantly ahead of where they had guided back in July. Our server ODMs (not owned, but a good indication for Nvidia and Broadcom) also saw a significant step up in growth, with revenues more than doubling compared to the year before.
If we focus on some of the other concrete data points we saw in September: the latest prices for GPU rentals continue to look strong; Nebius announced price increases of 20% for its calculation starting October 1; Amazon again raised its GPU reserve price; and CoreWeave announced that they contracted capacity at higher prices, along with an additional $25 billion in commitments written early in Q3. Again, all the data we can see points to demand still significantly exceeding supply in AI infrastructure. September also saw the launch of Meta’s Muse agent, where early adoption has been very strong and continues to grow rapidly. It’s still early, and we need to see if Muse can maintain engagement and move agent-based AI more meaningfully into the consumer space, but it represents a potentially very large new market for AI.
AMD (owned) is the most obvious winner for us as more consumers start using agents. While token generation – which determines what actions an agent takes – depends on GPU processing, the actions themselves – whether it’s running payroll, writing analyses, or summarizing documents – rely largely on CPU calculation. As we’ve mentioned before, agents use significantly more CPU than humans, both because they perform tasks faster and because they can work continuously.