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In July, the second-quarter reporting period for our portfolio companies got underway. In summary, the figures along the entire supply chain show that demand for AI still far exceeds supply. Most importantly, the figures from the major cloud players – so-called hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Meta and Amazon, all of which we own) – were very strong; we saw accelerating growth, improved profitability and a sharp increase in future order backlogs. We believe that the question of return on AI investments is increasingly being answered by the actual figures. This strengthens our conviction that the market still underestimates both the scale and duration of this investment cycle (capex cycle) – which is why we maintain large holdings in the AI semiconductor sector (ranging from chipmakers and memory producers to semiconductor manufacturing equipment suppliers). We also continue to see strong indicators along the supply chain, with monthly figures at high levels and many of our companies raising their forecasts as a result of strong demand.
We note, however, that this fundamental picture stands in stark contrast to share price movements during July, when many AI-related shares fell sharply. This was partly due to fundamental concerns regarding Chinese open-source models and the potential impact these could have on the finances of the leading AI development companies. We believe, however, that the main cause was high leverage and the forced liquidation of very large positions held by certain hedge funds. As regards the portfolio, we continue to focus on fundamental factors and the long-term perspective, whilst remaining aware of factors outside the companies’ core business – such as market positioning and high leverage – which may create volatility in the short term. Thyra Hedge was down 4.9% in July but was still up 6.2% for 2026.